Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?: Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned before Mar 1, 2027?

If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A pardon, commutation or amnesty granted by a competent Brazilian authority counts, including a decree or law that covers him without naming him, even if a court later suspends or annuls it. A court ruling that overturns or reduces his conviction or sentence, a law that only reduces penalties or changes sentence-progression rules for a class of convicts, and a change of custody such as house arrest do not count.