Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?

This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 South Dakota US Senate election has a smaller margin of victory than the 2026 New Mexico US Senate election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the margin of victory is measured in the final round of tabulation that determines the winner. Where an election includes a potential runoff or second round, the margin of victory is measured in the final round that determines the winner. This market considers only the 2026 US Senate elections in South Dakota and New Mexico scheduled as of Contract Issuance. If the two elections have identical margins of victory, Yes contract holders for each tied election receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied elections, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.

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  Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?

  This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 South Dakota US Senate election has a smaller margin of victory than the 2026 New Mexico US Senate election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the margin of victory is measured in the final round of tabulation that determines the winner. Where an election includes a potential runoff or second round, the margin of victory is measured in the final round that determines the winner. This market considers only the 2026 US Senate elections in South Dakota and New Mexico scheduled as of Contract Issuance. If the two elections have identical margins of victory, Yes contract holders for each tied election receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied elections, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.

  read Oct 24, 11:10 AM UTC

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  Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?

  The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "South Dakota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Dakota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Mexico Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Mexico has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Dakota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.