Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Roraima in the Brazil presidential runoff?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Roraima in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Each market ranks the runoff votes cast in the named state, as reported by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Votes cast abroad are not part of any state.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Amazonas in the Brazil presidential runoff? | Kalshi | 69% No | Open |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Amapá in the Brazil presidential runoff? | Kalshi | 71% Amapá | Open |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Pará in the Brazil presidential runoff? | Kalshi | 85% No | Open |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Minas Gerais in the Brazil presidential runoff? | Kalshi | 91% Minas Gerais | Open |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Tocantins in the Brazil presidential runoff? | Kalshi | 98% Tocantins | Open |
| Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Alagoas in the Brazil presidential runoff? | Kalshi | 98% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 24, 04:57 PM UTC