KalshiOpen

Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? Category 4 or higher landfall

No99%

Category 4 or higher landfall1%

Price checked at Oct 25, 02:52 AM UTC

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24h volume$75

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

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As of Oct 25, 03:42 AM UTC