KalshiOpen

Northeast Cat 3+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? Category 3 or higher landfall

No99%
Category 3 or higher landfall1%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a Category 3 or higher hurricane makes landfall in the Northeast United States between October 6, 2026 at 11:30:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. Covered states, including their islands: Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.

Venue activity

Holders—
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
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As of Oct 25, 01:45 AM UTC