Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?: Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Homeland Security in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. Before Aug 1, 2028

If the Supreme Court, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., rules that the district court’s classwide declaratory relief and vacatur of DHS’s third-country removal Guidance cannot stand, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., that the district court’s February 25, 2026 classwide declaratory relief and its vacatur under the Administrative Procedure Act of the Government’s Guidance on third-country removals cannot stand, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A holding that the district court lacked jurisdiction over Respondents’ claims, that 8 U.S.C. § 1252(f)(1) barred that relief, that the Guidance is not unlawful under 8 U.S.C. § 1231(b), the Due Process Clause, or FARRA/CAT and its implementing regulations, or any other ground or combination of grounds, other than mootness, that leaves none of that relief in place resolves the market to Yes, whether or not the Court reaches the remaining questions. The market resolves to No if any of that relief remains in place after the Court’s ruling, including after an affirmance in whole or in part. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted or held moot (including a vacatur of the judgments below because the case is moot), or is otherwise dismissed, remanded or disposed of without a holding that the relief cannot stand, the market resolves to No.