US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026: Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?
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Resolution rules
If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employment Cost Index, not seasonally adjusted and in current dollars. Q3 2026 refers to the 12 months ending September 2026, not the change during the quarter. Resolution uses the first officially published value at BLS’s reported precision. Subsequent revisions are ignored. This statistic measures national employer health-benefit cost growth, not a particular employer’s insurance premium renewal increase. Delayed or unavailable data will be handled under the governing contract.
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As of Oct 24, 05:38 PM UTC