Will Arthur Fery win set 1 in the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic match

Arthur Fery99%
No1%

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24h volume$96.9K
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ResolvesOct 6, 202619 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5, 02:18 PMOct 6, 09:03 AMOct 7, 03:47 AMOct 7, 10:32 PM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Arthur Fery wins set 1 in the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket cites official ATP match statistics and may resolve 50-50 if the first set is unfinished or the match is canceled; Kalshi uses its fair-price rules for non-occurrence or indeterminable outcomes and may remain open for a rescheduled match. These are resolution-rule differences, not differences in the event being measured.
  • Set 1 Winner: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic

    This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Marin Cilic in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Arthur Fery” if Arthur Fery wins the first set. It will resolve to “Marin Cilic” if Marin Cilic wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

  • Kalshithis market

    Will Arthur Fery win set 1 in the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic match

    If Arthur Fery wins set 1 in the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Marin Cilic win set 1 in the Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic matchKalshi99% NoOpen

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As of Oct 25, 08:54 AM UTC