Will Marcos Giron win set 2 in the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez match

No99%
Marcos Giron1%

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24h volume$319
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ResolvesOct 6, 202619 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 7Oct 8

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Marcos Giron wins set 2 in the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket uses official ATP statistics and specifies 50-50 outcomes when set 2 is not completed or the match is canceled; Kalshi uses its exchange rules, including fair-market-price treatment for certain cancellations or unresolved retirements. These are resolution-rule differences, not differences in the event being measured.
  • Set 2 Winner: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez

    This market refers to the tennis match between Marcos Giron and Sebastian Baez in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Marcos Giron” if Marcos Giron wins set 2. It will resolve to “Sebastian Baez” if Sebastian Baez wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

  • Kalshithis market

    Will Marcos Giron win set 2 in the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez match

    If Marcos Giron wins set 2 in the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    read Oct 8, 02:42 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Sebastian Baez win set 2 in the Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez matchKalshi99% Sebastian BaezOpen

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As of Oct 25, 08:06 AM UTC