Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta

No100%
Yes0%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
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ResolvesOct 9, 202616 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5, 12:40 PMOct 6, 11:37 AMOct 7, 10:34 AMOct 8, 09:31 AM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta in the ATP Shanghai Masters, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 02:00 UTC. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Mariano Navone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 23:59 UTC (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves Yes if Carreno Busta wins after play begins and uses a fair-price treatment for a match that never starts, while Limitless explicitly pays the advancing player and uses 50-50 for cancellation, walkover, ties, or no determined winner by its deadline. The venues also specify different scheduled/close times, including a possible two-week postponement window.
  • Pablo Carreno Busta wins

    If Pablo Carreno Busta wins the Navone vs Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Navone vs Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    read Oct 8, 03:31 PM UTC

  • Limitlessthis market

    Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta

    This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta in the ATP Shanghai Masters, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 02:00 UTC. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Mariano Navone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 23:59 UTC (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

    5 holders · read Oct 8, 08:33 AM UTC

Venue activity

Holders5
Held value$1.1K
Trades (24h)—
Trades5
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 40% · best ask 46%

Top holders

  • 0x61761B4Ff620607295e894f7c529A4De35dEc3B4Yes$752
  • 0x61761B4Ff620607295e894f7c529A4De35dEc3B4No$248
  • 0xC36B0C82478B3257866B6023116C1F62a941D970Yes$54
  • 0xA8A7ddBc2F9ffeae26EBB89D44C75bc155a4e87fYes$39
  • 0x8Db33614Eb41d7f6B9745118e28225194b52e10CNo$30

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Recent trades

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As of Oct 24, 09:55 PM UTC