Set 1 Winner: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak

Kamil Majchrzak100%
Yannick Hanfmann0%

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ResolvesOct 14, 202611 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5, 11:54 AMOct 6, 10:58 AMOct 7, 10:02 AMOct 8, 09:07 AM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Kamil Majchrzak in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yannick Hanfmann” if Yannick Hanfmann wins the first set. It will resolve to “Kamil Majchrzak” if Kamil Majchrzak wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket uses official ATP match statistics and specifies 50-50 treatment for an uncompleted first set or uncanceled match; Kalshi uses fair-market-price treatment for certain non-starts or indeterminate retirements and does not name a resolution source. The different listed settlement times do not change the event or outcome being measured.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Set 1 Winner: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak

    This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Kamil Majchrzak in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yannick Hanfmann” if Yannick Hanfmann wins the first set. It will resolve to “Kamil Majchrzak” if Kamil Majchrzak wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

  • Will Yannick Hanfmann win set 1 in the Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak match

    If Yannick Hanfmann wins set 1 in the Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil MajchrzakPolymarket100% Yannick HanfmannOpen
Game Spread: Kamil Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Yannick Hanfmann (+1.5)Polymarket100% Yannick HanfmannOpen
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil MajchrzakPolymarket100% YesOpen
Yannick Hanfmann vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket100% Over 2.5Open
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Set 2 Winner: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil MajchrzakPolymarket100% Yannick HanfmannOpen
Set Handicap: Kamil Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Yannick Hanfmann (+1.5)Polymarket100% Yannick HanfmannOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Hanfmann vs. Majchrzak: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket100% OverOpen

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As of Oct 24, 08:18 PM UTC