Set 1 Winner: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac

Zhizhen Zhang100%
Tomas Machac0%

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ResolvesOct 14, 202611 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5, 11:54 AMOct 6, 10:58 AMOct 7, 10:02 AMOct 8, 09:07 AM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Zhizhen Zhang and Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Zhizhen Zhang” if Zhizhen Zhang wins the first set. It will resolve to “Tomas Machac” if Tomas Machac wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket uses official ATP statistics and may resolve 50-50 if the first set is unfinished or the match is canceled, while Kalshi uses its fair-price rules for non-occurrence or unconditionally unsettled outcomes and allows postponement within two weeks. Their stated resolution timing and source/rule details differ, without changing the underlying question.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Set 1 Winner: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac

    This market refers to the tennis match between Zhizhen Zhang and Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Zhizhen Zhang” if Zhizhen Zhang wins the first set. It will resolve to “Tomas Machac” if Tomas Machac wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

  • Will Tomas Machac win set 1 in the Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac match

    If Tomas Machac wins set 1 in the Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas MachacPolymarket100% Tomas MachacOpen
Game Spread: Tomas Machac (-2.5) vs Zhizhen Zhang (+2.5)Polymarket100% Zhizhen ZhangOpen
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas MachacPolymarket100% YesOpen
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Tomas Machac: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket100% Over 2.5Open
Set Handicap: Tomas Machac (-1.5) vs Zhizhen Zhang (+1.5)Polymarket100% Zhizhen ZhangOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket100% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas MachacPolymarket100% Tomas MachacOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket100% UnderOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket100% UnderOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Zhang vs. Machac: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket100% OverOpen

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