US retail jobs added this holiday season: Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000? Above 450,000 jobs
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Resolution rules
If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 450,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001). The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies. The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.
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As of Oct 24, 06:32 PM UTC