Toledo wins by over 4.5 points

No99%
Toledo wins by over 4.5 points1%

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This market has settled. The prices shown are final.
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24h volume$3.6K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread—
ResolvesOct 10, 202614 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 4Oct 6Oct 8Oct 9Oct 11

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Toledo wins by more than 4.5 points in the Buffalo vs Toledo college football game originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. The venues differ in settlement timing, sources, and contingency rules: Kalshi uses a 48-hour postponement window and fair-price resolution, Polymarket stays open until completion and uses 50-50 for cancellation, while Gemini specifies source priority and a review process. These are resolution-rule differences, not differences in the underlying question.
  • Kalshithis market

    Toledo wins by over 4.5 points

    If Toledo wins by more than 4.5 points in the Buffalo vs Toledo college football game originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    read Oct 10, 07:23 AM UTC

  • Buffalo vs Toledo: spread: Toledo (-4.5)

    In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 10 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buffalo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

  • Buffalo vs Toledo: spread: Toledo (-4.5)

    This market resolves to Yes if the score differential recorded in favor of Toledo in the entire college football game between Buffalo and Toledo scheduled for 2026-10-10 at 3:00 p.m. CT is above 4.5. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the score differential (Toledo's score minus Buffalo's score) for the specified game. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (NCAAF), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Terms_and_Conditions_NCAA_CFB_Spread_Class_941e2dcb-07e0-4ee4-9d21-bdd1a7612f13.pdf).

    read Oct 10, 08:06 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Toledo wins by over 33.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Buffalo wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi99% Buffalo wins by over 2.5 pointsOpen
Toledo wins by over 19.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 17.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 38.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Buffalo wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi99% Buffalo wins by over 1.5 pointsOpen
Toledo wins by over 20.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 10.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 6.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 13.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 9.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 35.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 5.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 21.5 pointsKalshi98% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 14.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 16.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 11.5 pointsKalshi97% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 23.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 30.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 27.5 pointsKalshi99% NoOpen
Toledo wins by over 24.5 pointsKalshi91% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 11:15 PM UTC