Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027? | Polymarket | 65% No | Open |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 87% No | Open |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 59% Yes | Open |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
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65 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- semantics · 18 days ago
Keep on fighting Ukraine!
- NotSoTalkingMuppet · 27 days ago
The delay on declaring shit one way or another is insane, almost ww2 kind of "look everything is fine in a town captured 2 months ago, nothing to see here"
- pink.impala · 28 days ago
Kurwa kurwa wham bham beating that MF good!
- pink.impala · 28 days ago
WATCH: Passenger Beats Ukrainian Taxi Driver Over Music in Poland ⬆️According to local media, the passenger became angry because the Ukrainian refugee driver was listening to Ukrainian songs throughout the ride. 🔘 The passenger then beat the taxi driver and told him to ‘go to war.’
- Loving-Crewmember · last month
it's going to be ggwp after the election, and especially if they push in frontline the anti-drone system on tanks. jet powered drones, 300k mobilization, antidrone system, ukraine failing to keep up with the air-defense, artillery constantly raining upon ukrainian positions, it's going to be a tough winter and arrows going to move quite a bit.
- anotherpatrick · 2 months ago
why did u sell it bro? it works even until next year
- anotherpatrick · 2 months ago
@elPolloLoco appreciate ur contribution
- abdoohl · 2 months ago
Shitty Project Ukraine with them entitled ukros stop demanding money! nobody likes you!
- abdoohl · 2 months ago
They runnin out of men them corrupt ukrainian crooks HAHAHAHAHA
- abdoohl · 2 months ago
In Kyiv, the TCC (territorial recruitment) has been very active in recent months, even in busier areas, which they previously largely avoided due to the risk of facing resistance from the public. More checkpoints are being installed at main streets, arterial roads, and bridges, which block all traffic going both ways, preventing people from moving from the eastern bank to the western bank. Mobile checkpoints are installed for short periods of time (between tens of minutes to several hours) before changing locations to throw off online maps tracking their activity. The domains of these online maps are also periodically blacklisted to support the TCC's operations.
- 10to5 · 2 months ago
great post
- smaIIfish · 2 months ago
Cope final boss
- BetsAhead · 2 months ago
ISW is very biased. Its connection to former U.S. diplomat Victoria Nuland is clear. The ISW was founded by Kimberly Kagan, a military historian. She is married to Frederick Kagan, whose brother is Robert Kagan. Robert Kagan is married to Victoria Nuland. Critics have pointed out this family connection, noting that Victoria Nuland was a senior U.S. diplomat who shaped policy on Ukraine and Europe. It has funding from the defence industry, including General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, and DynCorp
- Loving-Crewmember · 3 months ago
Huliaipole was captured long before DeepState or ISW reported it, however, they took their sweet ass time to declare it captured. DeepState marked it as captured 3 weeks before ISW did.
- smaIIfish · 3 months ago
If you genuinely believe that then you are actually cooked. It will be until at least December before there's a chance.
- Kixn · 3 months ago
Konstyantynivka should be long captured by then and Russia at least 10km past it
- smaIIfish · 3 months ago
Cope
- smaIIfish · 3 months ago
insane odds for NO sep 30
- JoeBlack01 · 3 months ago
want test coments
- JoeBlack01 · 3 months ago
test
As of Oct 25, 08:32 AM UTC