PolymarketResolvedvenue data is stalePart of a cross-venue question

Will Ernesta Kareckaite win in Round 3?

No100%
Yes0%

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This market has settled. The prices shown are final.
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24h volume—
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Liquidity$0
Spread95%
ResolvesOct 11, 202614 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 4Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ernesta Kareckaite defeats Melissa Gatto at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.ufc.com/events

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. PolymarketUs resolves to last fair price if postponed >2 days; Polymarket resolves 50-50 if postponed beyond Oct 24. Both exclude decision victories and require the fight to end during Round 3 via KO/TKO/submission. Settlement times differ slightly (Oct 25 vs Oct 11 UTC) but both reference the same event outcome.
  • Will Ernesta Kareckaite win in Round 3?

    This market will settle to Yes if Ernesta Kareckaite wins in Round 3 of the Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto UFC fight scheduled for Oct 10, 2026. A technical decision, draw, or no contest does not count as a win in any round. A fighter winning in Round 3 means the fight officially ends during Round 3. If a fight is stopped between rounds, the victory will be deemed to have occurred in the round that just concluded. If the fight is cancelled or postponed by more than two days, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

    read Oct 10, 06:28 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Ernesta Kareckaite win in Round 3?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ernesta Kareckaite defeats Melissa Gatto at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)Polymarket50% Ernesta KareckaiteOpen
Fight to Go the Distance?Polymarket100% YesOpen
O/U 2.5 RoundsPolymarket100% OverOpen
Will the fight be won by submission?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Melissa Gatto win by KO or TKO?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the fight end before Round 3?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the fight end in a decision or draw?Polymarket100% YesOpen
O/U 0.5 RoundsPolymarket100% OverOpen
Will Melissa Gatto win in Round 1?Polymarket100% NoOpen
O/U 1.5 RoundsPolymarket100% OverOpen
Will the fight be won by decision?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Melissa Gatto win in Round 2?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ernesta Kareckaite win in Round 2?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ernesta Kareckaite win by KO or TKO?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Melissa Gatto win in Round 3?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ernesta Kareckaite win in Round 1?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the fight end before Round 2?Polymarket100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 24, 04:33 PM UTC