Fed Decision in December: No Change
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve does not change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December: 25 bps Increase | PolymarketUs | 71% Yes | Open |
| Fed Decision in December: 25 bps Decrease | PolymarketUs | 99% No | Open |
| Fed Decision in December: 50+ bps Increase | PolymarketUs | 97% No | Open |
| Fed Decision in December: 50+ bps Decrease | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 24, 06:08 PM UTC