Polymarket USOpen

Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Friedrich Merz - Chancellor of Germany

No90%
Yes11%

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24h volume$109
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 15, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 7Oct 13Oct 19Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if Friedrich Merz formally ceases to hold the position of Chancellor of Germany by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Friedrich Merz and the government of Germany. Friedrich Merz must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
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Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Xi Jinping - General Secretary of the Communist Party of ChinaPolymarketUs97% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Mark Carney - Prime Minister of CanadaPolymarketUs94% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Sanae Takaichi - Prime Minister of JapanPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Emmanuel Macron - President of FrancePolymarketUs96% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Miguel Diaz-Canel - First Secretary of the Communist Party of CubaPolymarketUs90% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy - President of UkrainePolymarketUs90% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Cyril Ramaphosa - President of South AfricaPolymarketUs90% NoOpen
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Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Vladimir Putin - President of RussiaPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
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Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Javier Milei - President of ArgentinaPolymarketUs90% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Recep Tayyip Erdogan - President of TurkiyePolymarketUs99% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Lee Jae Myung - President of South KoreaPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Narendra Modi - Prime Minister of IndiaPolymarketUs99% NoOpen
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? — Claudia Sheinbaum - President of MexicoPolymarketUs99% NoOpen

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As of Oct 24, 02:43 PM UTC