2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory: Republican Party 2-4%

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party's House popular vote margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. midterm election is between 2% and 4%. Outcome sourced from the United States Clerk of the House. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in U.S. Representative vote share percentages between the party that receives the most votes for U.S. Representative and the party that receives the second-most votes for U.S. Representative in the 2026 U.S. midterm election, as reflected in the certified results from the United States Clerk of the House. Each party's vote share percentage will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party's candidates for U.S. Representative receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative in the election. Votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are excluded. If the Republican Party does not receive the most votes for U.S. Representative in the U.S. midterm election, this market will settle to No. If the margin of victory falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the Contract for which that value is the lower boundary will settle to Yes and all other Contracts will settle to No. If multiple parties tie for the most votes for U.S. Representative, Yes contract holders of the lowest bracket contract for each tied party receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied parties, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.