GeminiOpen

When will Samuel Alito retire as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court? — Before Jul 1, 2027

No65%
Yes36%

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Spread5%
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 8 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 7Oct 13Oct 19Oct 24

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to YES if Samuel Alito retires as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before Jul 1, 2027. The outcome will be verified using statements from Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court, and reporting from Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If Samuel Alito leaves the role due to death while holding the position, contracts on this event may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Samuel Alito vacates the role and later re-occupies it, this market may settle based on the initial vacation of the role. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fdfcbcea26386499c8181c18ff010cbcc?alt=media&token=89aa4090-3ce9-416e-a552-f8a535b684d5&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

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As of Oct 24, 08:30 PM UTC