Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026? — Democratic Party
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This contract resolves based on whether the Democratic Party controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 51 seats. If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party. If control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by Senate leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the President Pro Tempore. The contract resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party controls the Senate and to No otherwise. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026? — Republican Party | Gemini | 65% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 25, 04:59 AM UTC