GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question

Recession this year?

No95%

Yes6%

Price checked at Oct 25, 01:55 AM UTC

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24h volume$688

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The venues have nearly identical resolution criteria and source. Their listed resolution timestamps differ by about 14 hours, which is not a substantive difference in the question.

this market
Recession this year?
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
read Oct 24, 02:02 AM UTC
Open
Recession this year?: Will there be a recession in 2026? Starts
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
read Oct 22, 07:03 AM UTC

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As of Oct 25, 02:03 AM UTC