2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?: Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? R+3 to R+4.9
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Resolution rules
If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -4.9 and -3 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.
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As of Oct 24, 04:39 PM UTC