Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?: Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.5%?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, for “Food at home,” as first published by BLS for December 2026. The published percentage change will be used directly, without recalculating it from index levels. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?: Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%? | Kalshi | 95% Above 1.0% | Open |
| Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?: Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%? | Kalshi | 78% No | Open |
| Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?: Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%? | Kalshi | 91% No | Open |
| Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?: Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%? | Kalshi | 83% Above 1.5% | Open |
| Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?: Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%? | Kalshi | 59% Above 2.0% | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 2, 03:32 PM UTC