PolymarketOpen

Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?

No91%

Yes9%

Price checked at Oct 24, 12:25 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$592

7d volume$1.2K

30d volume$1.9K

Liquidity$864

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Polymarket	73% Yes	$727	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?	Polymarket	78% No	$405	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	Polymarket	79% No	$348	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Polymarket	66% No	$268	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	Polymarket	79% No	$171	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Polymarket	52% Yes	$148	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 3.90% before 2027?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue this minute

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Oct 24, 12:57 PM UTC