PolymarketOpen

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?

No54%
Yes46%

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24h volume$100
7d volume$100
30d volume$100
Liquidity$82.4
Spread5%
ResolvesNov 1, 2026in 29 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 10:34 PMOct 2, 04:24 AMOct 2, 10:15 AMOct 2, 04:06 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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As of Oct 2, 04:33 PM UTC