Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.29% in October? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in October? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 24, 09:12 PM UTC