2026 U.S. federal government stake recipients: Unusual Machines

No53%
Yes48%

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24h volume$0
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Spread31%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 06:34 PMOct 1, 11:35 PMOct 2, 04:36 AMOct 2, 09:37 AM

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

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SourcePolymarket market will-the-us-federal-government-take-a-stake-in-unusual-machines

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket publishes detailed qualifying-acquisition criteria and official-government/credible-reporting sourcing, while Pascal publishes no criteria and points to the Polymarket market as its source. These are resolution-method differences, not differences in the underlying question.
  • Pascalthis market

    2026 U.S. federal government stake recipients: Unusual Machines

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 2, 09:30 AM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

    7 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 30, 02:36 AM UTC

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As of Oct 2, 09:37 AM UTC