Pennsylvania Governor Winner: Democrats

Yes97%
No3%

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Spread1%
ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 06:25 PMOct 2, 02:32 AMOct 2, 10:40 AMOct 2, 06:47 PM

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

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SourcePolymarket market will-the-democrats-win-the-pennsylvania-governor-race-in-2026

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies AP, Fox News, and NBC calls, or official certification if necessary; Pascal provides no separate criteria beyond its linked market source. They also list slightly different nominal resolution times, which is immaterial to the event being measured.
  • Pascalthis market

    Pennsylvania Governor Winner: Democrats

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 2, 06:45 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Pennsylvania Governor Winner: RepublicansPascal97% NoOpen

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As of Oct 2, 06:48 PM UTC