BTC Up or Down in October 2026?
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Probability history
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No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 30 '26 11:59 PM in the ET timezone is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 31 '26 11:59 PM ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 30 '26 11:59 PM in the ET timezone is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 31 '26 11:59 PM ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Venue activity
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As of Oct 1, 08:35 PM UTC