PolymarketOpen

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ilhan Omar by October 31, 2026?

Yes71%
No30%

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24h volume$20
7d volume$20
30d volume$20
Liquidity$65.7
Spread39%
ResolvesOct 31, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 01:28 PMOct 1, 04:30 PMOct 1, 07:31 PMOct 1, 10:33 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Andy Burnham by October 31, 2026?Polymarket88% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026?Polymarket84% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Stephen Colbert by October 31, 2026?Polymarket85% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by October 31, 2026?Polymarket68% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?Polymarket84% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Masoud Pezeshkian by October 31, 2026?Polymarket84% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mike Rogers by October 31, 2026?Polymarket84% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hasan Piker by October 31, 2026?Polymarket74% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by October 31, 2026?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by October 31, 2026?Polymarket96% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult James Talarico by October 31, 2026?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026?Polymarket75% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by October 31, 2026?Polymarket74% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Polymarket71% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by October 31, 2026?Polymarket98% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?Polymarket88% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?Polymarket73% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by October 31, 2026?Polymarket73% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026?Polymarket70% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by October 31, 2026?Polymarket86% NoOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?Polymarket72% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026?Polymarket72% YesOpen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Letitia James by October 31, 2026?Polymarket73% YesOpen

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As of Oct 1, 11:02 PM UTC