How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?: Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 56, then the market resolves to Yes. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 counts under that name, including as amended. Other legislation, including a renamed version or a larger bill such as a defense authorization or government funding bill, counts if it includes all three of the Act's core permitting reforms: (1) deadlines for, or limits on judicial review of, environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act; (2) limits on the federal government's ability to revoke, suspend or withdraw already-issued federal permits; and (3) new Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authority over the siting or cost allocation of interstate electric transmission lines. If the Senate's first vote clearing qualifying legislation is on a conference report or on a motion to concur in a House amendment, that vote counts as the final vote on passage. The vote must occur in the relevant full chamber (that is, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote). If no vote has occurred before the specified date, then any market not including "zero" within its count (e.g. "Between 50 and 64") resolves to No, and any market including "zero" (e.g. "Below 50") resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the bill is passed, any market including "100" for the Senate and "435" for the House of Representatives (e.g. "Between 65 and 100" or "Between 300 and 435") will resolve to Yes, and any market not including "100" or "435", respectively, (e.g. "Below 65") resolves to No. Once the market has expired, a request by any Member of Congress to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other official source.