KalshiOpen

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.8

No93%

Magnitude of at least 6.87%

Price checked at Oct 1, 02:57 PM UTC

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24h volume$140

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesOct 1, 2026in 9 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 1, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 7.0	Kalshi	97% No	$419.8	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.6	Kalshi	75% Magnitude of at least 6.6	$205.9	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.4	Kalshi	52% Magnitude of at least 5.4	$163	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.2	Kalshi	80% No	$42.4	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.8	Kalshi	75% No	$36.4	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.0	Kalshi	81% No	$30.5	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.4	Kalshi	90% No	$4.6	—	—	Open
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.6	Kalshi	67% No	$2.4	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 1, 03:01 PM UTC