PolymarketOpen

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?

No57%
Yes43%

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24h volume$327
7d volume$327
30d volume$327
Liquidity$134.5
Spread57%
ResolvesOct 10, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30, 11:00 PMOct 1, 06:09 AMOct 1, 01:19 PMOct 1, 08:29 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 18?Polymarket73% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 23?Polymarket72% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 24?Polymarket72% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 6?Polymarket70% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 26?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 11?Polymarket64% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 2?Polymarket82% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 22?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?Polymarket63% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 30?Polymarket69% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15?Polymarket65% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?Polymarket64% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 17?Polymarket72% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?Polymarket90% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 31?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 5?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 28?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 29?Polymarket72% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?Polymarket64% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 19?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?Polymarket65% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 13?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?Polymarket72% NoOpen

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As of Oct 1, 09:06 PM UTC