PolymarketOpen

AWS service disrupted by October 31?

No86%
Yes14%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$23.3
Spread45%
ResolvesNov 1, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30, 07:14 PMOct 1, 01:11 AMOct 1, 07:08 AMOct 1, 01:05 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Sep 30 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
AWS service disrupted by September 30?Polymarket75% NoOpen
AWS service disrupted by November 30?Polymarket74% YesOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 1, 01:51 PM UTC