PolymarketOpen

Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?

No56%
Yes45%

Price checked at

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24h volume$1.6K
7d volume$1.6K
30d volume$1.6K
Liquidity$144.7
Spread74%
ResolvesOct 8, 2026in 6 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30, 06:02 PMOct 1, 05:25 AMOct 1, 04:49 PMOct 2, 04:13 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Sep 30 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?Polymarket68% YesOpen
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Polymarket92% YesOpen
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026?Polymarket98% YesOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 2, 04:25 AM UTC