Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Sourcehttps://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 3700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 92% Yes | Open |
| Will there be at least 3800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 94% Yes | Open |
| Will there be at least 3900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 93% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 06:18 PM UTC