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Will NYC have between 4.25 and 4.75 inches of precipitation in October?

No71%
Yes29%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$34.7
Spread21%
ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30, 12:39 PMSep 30, 05:13 PMSep 30, 09:48 PMOct 1, 02:23 AM

No recorded data before Sep 30 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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As of Oct 1, 02:46 AM UTC