KalshiOpen

Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.13% or above

No96%

5.13% or above4%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:33 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$25

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread9%

ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 6 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

No recorded data before Sep 30 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.12% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 30, 2026, or one week following Sep 30, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Sep 30, 2026? 4.95% or above	Kalshi	97% 4.95% or above	$435.6	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	97% No	$400	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	65% No	$307	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	62% No	$270.9	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.96% on Sep 30, 2026? 4.97% or above	Kalshi	93% 4.97% or above	$131.2	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.11% or above	Kalshi	80% No	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% on Sep 30, 2026? 4.99% or above	Kalshi	93% 4.99% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.01% or above	Kalshi	79% 5.01% or above	$68.3	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.09% or above	Kalshi	86% No	$51.2	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	58% 5.03% or above	$50	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% on Sep 30, 2026? 4.93% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.93% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Sep 30, 2026? 4.91% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.91% or above	$15	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue this minute

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 30, 01:00 PM UTC