Will Emil Michael be Trump's AI czar?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI). However, the person must be announced as the "czar" or a derivative thereof. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for AI czar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Czar by December 31”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar? | Polymarket | 59% No | Open |
| Will Sriram Krishnan be Trump's AI czar? | Polymarket | 86% No | Open |
| Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar? | Polymarket | 81% No | Open |
| Will Sean Cairncross be Trump's AI czar? | Polymarket | 88% No | Open |
| Will Scott Kupor be Trump's AI czar? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
| Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will Chamath Palihapitiya be Trump's AI czar? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 07:15 PM UTC