PolymarketOpen

Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?

No57%
Yes43%

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24h volume$1.1K
7d volume$1.1K
30d volume$1.1K
Liquidity$10.3K
Spread5%
ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 4 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 07:59 PMSep 30, 03:58 AMSep 30, 11:57 AMSep 30, 07:55 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump announces his pick to be AI czar by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI). However, the person must be announced as the "czar" or a derivative thereof. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 1, 2026?Polymarket91% NoOpen
Will Trump name an AI czar by September 30, 2026?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?Polymarket61% NoOpen
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026?Polymarket86% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 08:08 PM UTC