KalshiOpen

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.23% or above

5.23% or above99%

No1%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:48 PM UTC

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24h volume$649.5

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread8%

ResolvesSep 29, 20262 hours ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Sep 29 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.22% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 29, 2026, or one week following Sep 29, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.27% or above	Kalshi	66% No	$1.2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.29% or above	Kalshi	96% No	$913.3	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.17% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.17% or above	$452.7	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.25% or above	Kalshi	76% 5.25% or above	$401.1	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.19% or above	Kalshi	94% 5.19% or above	$249.4	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.21% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.21% or above	$201	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	94% 5.15% or above	$61	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.13% or above	Kalshi	94% 5.13% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.11% or above	Kalshi	94% 5.11% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.09% or above	Kalshi	95% 5.09% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.01% or above	Kalshi	96% 5.01% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.05% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.03% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Sep 29, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	95% 5.07% or above	$15	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 09:22 PM UTC