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Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?: Will Secretary of Health and Human Services be the first to leave office? Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

No84%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.16%

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24h volume$29.5
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 20, 2029in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 03:26 AMSep 29, 07:12 PMSep 30, 10:59 AMOct 1, 02:45 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Health and Human Services at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves (not a successor). Officials can leave office through resignation, firing, removal, impeachment and removal, or any other process by which they cease to hold the position. A change in the name of an office, including renaming the Secretary of Defense as the Secretary of War, does not constitute leaving that position. The first official to leave triggers resolution for all markets in the set - the one who left resolves to Yes, all others resolve to No. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

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As of Oct 1, 03:25 AM UTC