KalshiOpen

Will any UN country change its capital before 2028?

No79%
Before 202822%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 03:25 AMSep 29, 08:02 PMSep 30, 12:39 PMOct 1, 05:16 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a United Nations member state moves its capital city to a new city before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A capital change counts once a law, constitutional amendment, decree or other legally binding act made after Issuance establishes a different city as the capital of a United Nations member state and fixes when the change takes effect, even if it takes effect after Jan 1, 2028. A capital change that was already legally established and scheduled before Issuance does not count.

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As of Oct 1, 05:33 AM UTC