What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.8
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 29, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.4 | Kalshi | 99% Magnitude of at least 5.4 | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.8 | Kalshi | 98% No | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 7.0 | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.6 | Kalshi | 99% Magnitude of at least 5.6 | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.0 | Kalshi | 98% No | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.2 | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.4 | Kalshi | 94% No | Open |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 29, 2026? Magnitude of at least 6.6 | Kalshi | 95% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 06:02 AM UTC