Bahrain Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Fernando Alonso
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Fernando Alonso has the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and their finishing position in the main race originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at the 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. Ties / Dead Heats: If multiple drivers tie for the greatest position differential, “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied drivers, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout. Official ties (grid or finish) keep the tied position number for all affected drivers; the next position skips ahead accordingly (e.g., a tie at P2 → 1, 2, 2, 4). Eligibility for Yes/No: Drivers must have both an official starting grid position and an official classified finishing position to be eligible for a Yes resolution. Resolves No if the driver doesn't participate, DNS, DNF without a classified position, or is DSQ'd from the main race. If a driver DNFs but the governing body still assigns them a classified finishing position, that position counts for finishing position differential. If a driver starts from the pit lane, their starting position is treated as one position lower than the last regularly gridded driver, unless the governing body officially publishes a specific numeric grid position for that pit-lane start — in which case the published position is used instead. Postponement/Cancellation: If the race is rescheduled within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the rescheduled race. If the race is cancelled outright, or rescheduled more than 48 hours from its originally scheduled start, all contracts will settle to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
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As of Sep 29, 11:48 PM UTC