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Louisiana: Which House races will be won outright?: Will anyone win the 2026 Louisiana 5th Congressional District open primary outright? LA-05

No95%
LA-055%

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24h volume$1.2K
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Spread8%
ResolvesNov 3, 2027next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 02:43 AMSep 29, 08:51 AMSep 29, 02:58 PMSep 29, 09:05 PM

No recorded data before Sep 29 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 5th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes. Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies. The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds. Blank votes, null votes, and invalid ballots are excluded unless electoral law specifically includes them. The market resolves once the relevant electoral body declares whether anyone won the first round.

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As of Sep 29, 09:19 PM UTC