How many House seats will Democrats win in Iowa?: Will Democrats win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Iowa?

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ResolvesJan 4, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 02:43 AMSep 29, 08:34 AMSep 29, 02:24 PMSep 29, 08:14 PM

No recorded data before Sep 29 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Democrats win 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Iowa, then the market resolves to Yes. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner of every seat. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves using official authorities, Congress, and credible reporting, with explicit handling of caucusing independents and excluded special elections; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after media projections and uses the candidate's election-banner affiliation. They also have different scheduled resolution times, but these are settlement-rule differences rather than different questions.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?

    This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

    24 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 05:50 PM UTC

  • Kalshithis market

    How many House seats will Democrats win in Iowa?: Will Democrats win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Iowa?

    If Democrats win 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Iowa, then the market resolves to Yes. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner of every seat. See full rules for details.

    read Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC

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As of Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC