Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?: Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 12% of the vote in 2026?

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 12% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election authority under the name of a political party other than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or a recognized state affiliate of either (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party). A minor party whose registered name contains the word "Independent" (for example, the Alaskan Independence Party) qualifies. Candidates recorded as Independent, Unaffiliated, Nonaffiliated, Nonpartisan, Undeclared, No Party, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, or under any other non-party or petition label do not qualify. A candidate who is also the Democratic or Republican nominee does not qualify. A candidate nominated only by one or more qualifying parties qualifies, and their votes across all such lines are combined. All U.S. Senate general elections held on November 3, 2026 are in scope, including special elections. Each qualifying candidate's figure is their share of all votes cast for that seat as certified by the relevant state election authority; in a ranked-choice contest, the first-round share is used. The market resolves on the single highest such certified share across all contests.