US unemployment rate at year-end 2026: Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 3.5%?

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2026. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.